Weekly Overview Cables - Ukraine war updates and new serious sanctions on Russia.
1) Russia advances towards Dnipro, and Ukraine’s surprise Kursk counteroffensive continues to bring unexpected success.
Russian forces have altered their approach in Ukraine’s eastern theater - bypassing a potentially grueling urban battle in Pokrovsk, Donetsk, and advancing instead toward the Dnipro region.
Pokrovsk, a vital logistics and transport hub for Ukraine’s hold on the Donetsk region, has been fortified for urban warfare by Ukrainian defenders since the summer.
However, Russian troops advancing from the south are now maneuvering west of Pokrovsk, closing in on a highway that leads to the Dnipropetrovsk region.
According to Deep State, a mapping group with ties to Ukraine’s defense ministry, Russian forces are within 7 kilometers of this critical route.
Fortunately for Ukraine, there is no indication of an impending breakthrough in this direction.
It remains unclear however, if Ukraine’s defensive fortifications and manpower assets will be enough to quickly parry any further advance.
Meanwhile, on the northern front, the situation is still unfavorable for Kyiv, and Ukraine accumulated further small wins in the battles raging in the Kursk region.
Utilizing British Challenger 2 tanks, Ukrainian troops executed a three-pronged attack, breaching Russian defenses and advancing approximately 1.7 miles beyond the frontline.
In addition, for the first time ever, Ukraine has finally captured several North Korean alive - an irrefutable proof of North Korea’s direct involvement in the conflict (previously, Russian disinformation institutions/sources would make false claims that the alleged North Korean troops were actually ethnic citizens of Russia - from regions like Buryatia etc.)
Speaking of North Koreans - there are now reports that Russian commanders are using them as "human mine detectors," - forcing them to march through minefields to clear paths for Russian forces, reflecting an utter disregard for their lives.
That Russian army was capable of such disregard to basic humanity was pretty obvious after instances of castration and torture perpetrated against Ukrainian prisoners of war, and intentional murder and massacre of civilians in Bucha - near Kyiv (that very unit later on received honors and awards personally from Putin.)
But that they would be so callous in relation to their ‘‘allied’’ troops was still surprising.
Aside from humanitarian and ethical concerns, the Russian army’s extreme callousness for those fighting on its side will make it much harder to continue recruiting foreign ‘‘legioners’’ (who, unlike North Korean soldiers, may join voluntarily in return for the promised bounty).
It would therefore suit well for Ukraine to focus their information war resources to amplify the global reach of such news.
2) EU Delivers First Tranche of Seized Russian Assets to Ukraine.
The European Union has transferred €3 billion ($3.07 billion) to Ukraine, marking the first installment of funding derived from profits generated by frozen Russian assets.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal confirmed the transfer, highlighting that the funds will be allocated to priority expenditures.
This payment is part of the G7’s Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loans initiative, which aims to channel $50 billion to Ukraine.
Of this total, the EU has pledged $20 billion, further demonstrating its commitment to supporting Kyiv’s financial stability amid the ongoing conflict.
3) The U.S., UK, and Japan Tighten Sanctions on Russia.
The United States, United Kingdom, and Japan unveiled new sanctions against Russia in a coordinated effort to target its energy sector, shadow fleet operations, and global enablers.
The US Treasury Department sanctioned Russian state-owned energy giants Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, 183 vessels linked to Russia's "shadow fleet," and a range of entities including oil traders, service providers, insurance firms, and energy officials.
The action aims to disrupt Moscow's oil exports and the logistics supporting them.
The United Kingdom followed suit, imposing its own sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, reflecting close coordination with Washington.
Meanwhile, Japan expanded its sanctions against Russia, freezing the assets of 33 organizations and 12 individuals.
All of this is great stuff - but an important question is nonetheless still raised:
Why did the allies wait for three years before imposing these measures?
Why allow Russia to benefit from those 183 vessels and the oil trade and billions in revenue which helps Moscow to sustain its onslaught in Ukraine?
That Russia is operating a shadow fleet was well-known for all this time and it is therefore concerning that there was such a delay.
Clearly, lack of information was not the issue.
And the bureaucracy that has imposed far more complex economic sanctions (like the December 2023 secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions (FFIs) doing business with Russia’s military-industrial complex), and measures like the G7 price cap on Russian oil ($60 per barrel) is highly competent enough to pull of these sanctions in no time.
(side note: Secondary sanctions target non-sanctioned entities that conduct business with sanctioned parties. Unlike primary sanctions, which directly prohibit a country's citizens or companies from engaging with specific foreign entities, secondary sanctions extend the reach by penalizing foreign individuals, companies, or financial institutions that facilitate restricted activities with the sanctioned nation. The point here is to isolate Russia further by discouraging global entities from maintaining economic ties that could circumvent the intended impact of the primary sanctions. So all these banks and institutions in countries like Hungary, UAE or Kazakhstan are now forced to either end business with sanctioned Russian institutions/end sanctioned services or face the cost of doing so. A lot of these banks and other institutions have in fact ended their engagement with Russia: it worked. But the aforementioned countries also get the excuse to distance themselves from Moscow and claim that it is ‘‘strictly just business”. In certain circumstances, the opposite could also take place: where secondary sanctions are used to hike up the price of doing business with Russia. In this scenario, Russia still ends up swallowing the higher cost but the third-party/country uses the opportunity to maximize its gains.)
Which leads us to an uncomfortable possibility: the Western leaders were either reluctant to ‘‘escalate’’ to these measures (thinking that Russia would retaliate much harsher via hybrid measures etc) or they thought it was prudent to leave some in the chamber - keeping it as future possible cost on Russia.
And this was happening while Russia was pouring in billions into its military and pummeling Ukrainian positions all across the front.
The West’s hesitation in maxing up economic sanctions is based on wrong premises.
Russia is already escalating its hybrid warfare against the West and if the goal is to leave some bullets in the chamber, then those could be industry-wide total export restrictions and secondary sanctions that could affect Russia’s population and state overall - not just its primary revenue streams (like the oil trade).
4) Italy emerges as a strong supporter of Ukraine.
Following discussions with Ukrainian President Zelensky, Italy’s PM Meloni reiterated Italy's steadfast support, crucially, emphasizing that the decision to back Ukraine is both morally right and in Italy's national interest.
Meloni: "It's a choice that won't change," - underscoring the importance of upholding international law and national integrity.
Meloni has actively engaged with international leaders to reinforce support for Ukraine.
In January 2025, she met with Trump - expressing confidence that his administration would maintain Western interests and continue engaging with Ukraine.
(side note: this is not all just lofty rhetoric either: in December 2024, Italy's cabinet approved a decree extending the supply of military aid to Ukraine until the end of 2025 - ensuring the continued provision of "means, materials, and equipment" to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities)