Weekly Overview Cables - Ukraine war updates, Trump seeks Ukraine's mineral wealth in exchange for support.

1) Trump’s bazaar-style negotiations with Ukraine - opportunities lurk beneath distasteful tactics.

• In exchange for the U.S. help, President Trump suggested that Ukraine should provide access to rare earth metals and minerals for the U.S.

• Now, a lot of people have rightly come up with an immediate reaction of disgust and contempt that a country facing an invasion by a superpower is being pushed around and squeezed out of its natural resources in exchange for U.S. help.

• What happened to American idealism?

• What happened to helping our partners and allies?

• After all, isn’t Ukraine the buffer zone for the rest of Europe?

• Isn’t it the first step on the way to NATO territories?

• Isn’t Ukraine killing Russian soldiers in the interest of NATO and the U.S.?

• Is it not already beneficial that around 700,000 casualties (and countless weapons/hardware loss) have been inflicted on Russia?

• These are 700,000 fewer people available for Russia to use against NATO and potentially in the future distraction-based operations to help China when they make their own move.

• Isn’t that enough?

• The answer is, of course, a resounding yes - Ukraine is already contributing significantly.

• But then there’s also the practical issue of how to sustain Trump’s support for Ukraine.

• Now, recall that Trump has promised to end the war as soon as he comes to power, then that deadline was extended by 100 days, and now he’s already talking to the Russians without Ukraine in the room.

• In other words, Trump is already interested in ending the war (likely without sweating too much on securing a good deal), but what if the war doesn’t end?

• Then Trump can use this as an excuse to keep helping Ukraine and frame it in America-first terms.

• After all, this then doesn’t become charity; it becomes a quid pro quo.

• (side note: it never was charity to begin with. But many MAGA-base supporters may struggle to comprehend that.)

• This is essentially a pragmatic deal where the U.S. helps Ukraine in return for something tangible that benefits Americans, and he can then sell it to his MAGA base.

• So, looked at from this angle, it’s actually not that horrible of an idea.

• Indeed, that was the reaction of Ukrainian leadership: “let’s do a deal” responded Zelensky.

• Leaders in Kyiv are desperate to find an angle of pragmatic self-interest to sell continuous support for Ukraine.

• Gone are the high-minded values, principles, partnerships, and alliances—along with the importance of stopping Russia in its tracks from further imperialist invasion.

• And entering the chat now is the pragmatic, transactional approach: you help me, I’ll help you.

• And if this is the angle that will persuade Trump, then from Ukraine’s perspective, so be it..

• (Side note: There’s also a practical issue here—most of the rare earths are actually in eastern Ukraine, in the Donbas region, which Russia either controls or is trying to control. So that adds another incentive for Ukraine to say yes. It’s not like they have full access to these resources right now, and getting them necessarily involves pushing back Russia.)

2) Toretsk on the verge of collapse.

• South of Bakhmut, Russian troops have expanded control on the outskirts of Toretsk, a town long on the frontline.

• They secured portions of the nearby village of Niu-York (New York) and some mining facilities north of Toretsk.

• However, Ukrainian defenders still hold parts of northern Toretsk, including several mine complexes and the adjacent village of Krymske. Urban fighting rages in Toretsk’s outer neighborhoods.

• As of February 7, Ukraine refutes claims that the city has fully fallen, insisting that defensive positions are still being held.

3) Russia regains overall momentum in 2025.

• After blunting Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Russia seized the initiative in late 2024 and this continues in early 2025.

• Moscow’s forces are using massed artillery, aerial glide bombs, and waves of infantry assaults to make grinding gains in Donbas.

• Ukraine forced to change command.

• The intensity of Russia’s eastern offensive and recent setbacks have prompted shifts in Ukraine’s military leadership. I

• In late January, President Zelensky replaced the commander overseeing the eastern front in a bid to “strengthen the front” after a series of Russian gains.

• The protracted fighting continues to exact a dire humanitarian toll. Towns like Avdiivka, Mar’inka, and Bakhmut in the east lie in ruins after incessant shelling. Civilians in frontline cities such as Pokrovsk are under constant bombardment.

• Additionally, missile and drone strikes continue targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure.