Weekly Overview Cables - Ukraine War, Russia acts like a Chinese vassal.
Ukraine war updates.
1) Ukraine hits a major milestone in its counteroffensive.
Ukrainian counteroffensive forces have penetrated the main Russian defensive line in the southeast near Verbove village (in Zaporizhzhia).
Ukrainian Paratroopers are fighting through entrenched positions, seeking to open a gap for Western-supplied armor to punch through with a major thrust.
This is a crucial development: for the very first time, Ukraine has penetrated the main Russian defensive line (second line of defense) - a layered system of minefields, trenches, and anti-tank obstacles.
Ukraine continues to demonstrate battlefield progress - however slow or incremental it may be.
And here is a good reminder on how short-sighted and unreasonable most of the Western media commentary is:
This is the NYT headline (found and shared by Professor Paul Post) from the fall of 1944 - admitting that the allied assault on Hitler’s reinforced Siegfried line was “slow”.
Imagine now, people from other countries telling Americans that the counteroffensive is slow and that they should instead negotiate and settle with Hitler to “prevent further bloodshed”.
It doesn’t take too much creativity to understand what sort of reactions would come from outraged Americans.
Ukrainians are being very polite in their response..
2) Russian cities are under attack from Ukrainian drones.
Over the past week, at least six different cities were targeted by Ukrainian drones.
Not all of the targets were of high military value, and most of the drones were destroyed by the air defense systems.
But this strategy is aimed at weakening Putin’s reputation for competent provision of stability & security for average Russian citizens.
Such attacks are successful in penetrating the mirage of security offered to Russians in return for their apathy and unwillingness to question the war in Ukraine.
It must be noted that Ukrainians are extremely careful with this strategy, and are (unlike Russians) actively avoiding civilian targets - the goal is to cause frustration with the Kremlin - instead of causing outrage towards Ukraine (which would then fuel the pro-war public sentiment and strengthen Putin’s hand in prosecuting this war).
3) Ukraine announced successful development of a long-range attack drone.
Apparently, the domestically-produced drone with a range of 700km (434) miles was the one responsible for the successful attack on the Pskov airfield - resulting in destruction of two Il-76 cargo planes (and damage to four others).
Ukraine head of military intelligence (GUR) Kyrylo Budanov claimed that the attacks were launched from within Russia.
That may or may not be true - after all, strategic deception is part of Budanov’s job description.
(side note: and in this particular case, such claims relieve the pressure off the NATO Baltic states - which are blamed by the Kremlin propaganda machine for allowing Ukraine to use them as launchpads to target Pskov. In this context, by accepting full responsibility for the strikes, Ukraine is reducing the overall tensions between Russia and NATO - once again, proving its bona fides as a reliable ally)
But one thing is clear: Ukraine is doubling down on normalizing deep strikes within Russia.
And this makes it all the more harder for the Biden admin to still refuse sending over ATACMS (especially when Brits have sent their Storm Shadows and the French followed with their SCALP-EGs).
With all that said, Ukraine developing its own advanced missiles and drones serves two additional strategic purposes:
1) It is a reminder that as a NATO ally, Ukraine will be a valuable ally pulling its own weight, and adding to the capabilities of the entire alliance, and;
2) It is an insurance against the turning tides in 2024.
First off, and from the perspective of political signaling, Ukraine being militarily proactive in developing its weapons demonstrates to the skeptics of continuous Western support, that even under such extreme wartime conditions the country is doing its best to develop its own tools - it is not a burden or a passive recipient of the NATO military gear (something that cannot unfortunately be said of Taiwan - not that this would make it less important to defend the allied island - but a stern conversation demanding that Taipei gets its act together? Most certainly..).
And secondly, if the worst-case scenario materializes, and the turning political tides in the West reduce the volume of future military supplies, well then, Ukraine will be in a better position to keep fighting using its own means.
On its own, that would not work in the long-term.
But wars of attrition have a tendency to produce wildly unexpected pressure out of nowhere - especially for authoritarian regimes that don’t have transparent pressure valves (see Prigozhin’s attempted coup).
In this context therefore, extending the lifespan and ability to prosecute the war by many months - if not years, is still much better than the alternative of total dependence on the West.
4) Ukraine replaces Defense Minister amidst corruption scandals
President Zelenskyy announced the decision - calling for a need for a ‘‘new approach’’ in the ministry.
(side note: he is to be replaced by Rustem Umerov (of Crimean Tatar Origin)- currently, head of State Property Fund - in his role, Umerov was in the process of overseeing corporate governance reforms to attract foreign investors. Apparently, he was doing a great job. As someone of a Crimean Tatar origin, his appointment may also be seen as symbolic. Russia will now face a Defense Minister personally invested in the future of Crimea. And Turkey would undoubtedly be pleased to hear that a Crimean of a Tatar (Turkic) origin is the one selected for this role..)
It is fair to say that on the whole, the outgoing Minister Oleksii Reznikov did a great job - but corruption scandals at the ministry (particularly around procurement) were too much for Zelensky to tolerate.
The media/public pressure was simply too high.
Zelensky’s decision reaffirms Ukraine’s democratic governance - unlike Russia, where Shoygu gets to actually design and oversee a system of corruption, in Ukraine, a competent minister gets sacked for crimes committed at lower levels (but by individuals under his oversight).
This is also great signaling vis-à-vis allies in the West - Ukraine is demonstrating willingness to impose strict standards of conduct - going as far as to sack a wartime Minister of Defense, who did a pretty decent job overall.
In other words, Ukraine demonstrates that it belongs in the EU and NATO.
Russia’s embarrassing appeasement of China - in return for very little.
A lot of media attention has been focused on China’s new updated map of the South China Sea - how its new “standard map” includes - rather shamelessly - pieces of India, Bhutan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, Brunei, Taiwan and the Philippines.
A lot of the aforementioned states have lodged formal protests to this new map (and an attack on their sovereignty).
But what was overlooked however, is how the new map contains bits of Russia - and yet in spite of this, the Kremlin is rather silent.
The territory in question is the long-disputed Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island.
The island was to be shared equally between China and Russia in an agreement of 2008.
But China is now laying claim to the island in its entirety.
Now, if this was some remote outpost that has never been contested before, one could assume a genuine error - something that the Kremlin would be well within its rights to not make a fuss about - opting to raise the matter quietly behind closed doors.
But the island in question has been contested for a very long time, and there has been an explicit agreement (in 2008) to share it.
This is not an oversight or a mistake - it is a deliberate claim.
An intentional challenge to Putin, and a very obvious aggressive demonstration of power from China.
This can only be interpreted in one way: Beijing knows its power over Russia, and it is not coy about exercising it.
They are aware of their leverage over Russia, and are rather opportunistic and ruthless in applying it.
But, why is Russia going along with it?
Simply because Russia doesn’t want to create an appearance of tensions between Moscow and Beijing.
Obviously, it would be unacceptable for Putin to hint at souring relations between Russia and China - it would weaken his hand in negotiations with the West.
Putin’s hand in Ukraine will be weaker if the perception that China and Russia aren’t really friends, solidifies.
But having said that, there are many alternative ways of publicly registering disagreement without a formal diplomatic protest.
Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or its Embassy in China could for example tweet that the map seems to contain a ‘‘technical error’’ in its designation of the Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island.
But even this was not done.
Why not?
Why is Putin so willing to act as a vassal when he is not getting all that much in return?
Aside from some dual-purpose drones, spare parts, and personnel armor, China hasn’t done that much to help out Russia.
In fact, it probably hasn’t done even 1/100th of what NATO has (collectively) for Ukraine.
China is so useless that Russia has to build ever closer relations with North Korea just to get artillery shells.
(side note: and apparently, even going so far as to share the blueprints of their Topol-M ballistic missiles - to be used for the development of the North Korean Hwasong 18 missiles)
And Beijing’s uselessness is not limited to actual military support either - politically too, they have been rather lacking to say the least.
In his Moscow trip in March of this year, Xi Jinping praised Putin for his ‘‘strong leadership”, but where was the support for his ‘‘friend’’ when Prigozhin was marching on Rostov and Moscow?
(side note: the very same trip highlighted the limits of economic partnership as well. Xi refused to approve and announce a second “Power of Siberia” gas pipeline to China - that would be too beneficial for Russia. Why not maintain all the leverage and keep your gas sources diversified instead?)
Where was a strong definitive support for Putin when he needed it the most?
In the crucial 24 hours of the crisis caused by the attempted coup, when Russia’s aircrafts were destroyed by marching Wagner troops, Beijing was rather mute..
Only after the Lukashanka-brokered Belarus deal was done, that Chinese officials started to express support for Putin.
And just last month too, Beijing did its best to appear genuinely neutral at the Saudi-organized peace summit for Ukraine - not how true allies behave..
Probably to the surprise of those sitting at the Kremlin, the Chinese pronounced that the summit in Jeddah helped to “consolidate international consensus”.
Now put yourself into Putin’s shoes when hearing this: your ‘‘ally’’ (apparently, a partner of ‘‘no limits”) attends a summit that Russia is excluded from, and says that 1) there is a consolidation of international consensus on the peace in Ukraine, and that 2) this is a good thing.
International consensus? Without Russia’s presence?
Clearly, any consensus between the attending 40 states - heavily represented by the West - is not going to be a pro-Russia consensus…
And yet, in spite of these obvious deficits of goodwill, Putin is somehow still clinging on.
In the words of Trump, this is the ‘‘worst deal ever’’.
China is already doing very little for Russia, and given the slowdown of its economy, the volume of Russian oil imports would also most likely decrease (so there goes the lucrative revenue from oil sales).
(side note: and here too Beijing was not acting as a friend. China was already importing Russian oil at below G7 price cap level of $60. And even that is not all: China furthermore refused to import Russia’s refined oil products - like Diesel - choosing to instead keep importing cheaper crude, refine it in China, and export it for profit).
But in spite of all of these shortcomings, Putin is still not extinguishing his hope..
Why?
Because, in his mind, Putin is playing the long game (literally, with every single party involved).
Perhaps, by dragging this war out into 2024, and by hoping to delay/prevent the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Putin aims at two simultaneous goals:
1) Convince the West that supporting Ukraine is futile. The Kremlin has already succeeded in poisoning the well in the GOP.
If Ukraine’s counteroffensive genuinely stalls, then pressure on all candidates to pull back support (and pressure Kyiv into concessions) in the 2024 elections will heighten;
2) By convincing the West that supporting Ukraine is unviable, Putin aims to convince Xi that conversely, the very opposite is in fact viable: that with no major Western effort to confront, supporting Russia is now a lower risk/higher reward endeavor.
And if at that point, China’s encirclement (by the US) continues, restrictions on its chip and other hi-tech industries are increased, and the domestic economy continues to slow, then why wouldn’t Xi want to hit back at the West?
Why wouldn’t he want to humiliate the US and its allies right in the heart of Europe?
At least, that is how Putin sees it - and it is not an unreasonable view of things.
After all, the only thing that prevents Xi from engaging in a similar policy right now, is the very unfavorable risk/reward ratio: the US and EU are strongly behind Ukraine, and there is still a lot to lose for China - from additional US sanctions and lack of access to the EU market (which would undoubtedly take place if Beijing was to fully sponsor an invasion in EU’s backyard).
And this is yet another reason why Ukraine’s success is so essential.
A lot of things in the world depend on Russia losing this war.
Virtually all US national security objectives are going to be affected if Ukraine loses this war: from an indirect loss of credibility (forcing our hitherto allies to hedge their bets and look for alternative arrangements) to a formation of a successful Russia-China axis - confident and overjoyed by the recent success of their partnership.
Supporting Ukraine with full force, and providing all the weapons that it needs to win as fast as possible, is not just essential in convincing Putin that his invasion is doomed to failure (forcing him to negotiate a withdrawal with a sincere intent), but it is also crucial for the deterrence of China’s appetite for the humiliation of the West.