Weekly Overview Cables - Ukraine war updates: New Kursk offensive, Trump persuasion tactics and new military tech.
Happy new year and thank you for reading!
1) Ukraine launches a new surprise offensive in Kursk.
Ukrainian troops launched a surprise counteroffensive in the Kursk region, employing armored vehicles and electronic warfare tactics.
The operation targeted Russian positions near the village of Makhnovka, resulting in significant losses among Russian and North Korean troops.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that a battalion of North Korean infantry and Russian paratroopers were defeated around Makhnovka.
The timing of the attack is advantageous for at least three reasons:
1) Operationally, the Jan 1 - 7 period is usually quite dead in Russia: it is well-known that the period from the new year’s day to Orthodox Christmas day is very slow.
Everything in Russia will be slow: from local government departments, hospitals, emergency services etc to military recruitment operations.
Additionally, there are well-reported rumors that North Korea is planning to scale up its presence by Spring - so maximizing territorial gains while still possible makes sense.
2) Remind the incoming Trump admin that Ukraine is still capable of vigorous military operation - that there is still enough resources, morale and operational might to recapture the initiative on the battlefield.
The very last thing Kyiv needs is to have senior Trump officials/advisers and perhaps Trump himself carrying the belief that Ukraine is already finished on the battlefield and that the U.S. should just aim to cut the losses while it can.
Among other objectives, this operation likely aims to rebut such notions as well.
3) Inflict another prestige loss on Putin so soon after his end of the year live Q&A with citizens - where Putin was forced to defend his record and failure to recapture Kursk.
As often discussed in these cables, Kursk embarrassment is a major political risk for Putin: for more than five months now his military has failed to recapture the occupied land.
It increasingly looks like Putin will either have to scale up the number of North Korean troops or be forced to divert and reallocate troops from the Donbas region to help in Kursk: this is precisely what Ukraine wanted to see happen with the initial incursion - and what Putin was trying to resist for a long time.
2) Zelensky pitches Trump things he desires the most: transactional material gains and recognition and glory.
Ukraine is actively engaging with President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team to shape U.S. policy on the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Recognizing Trump’s transactional approach, Ukrainian officials are proposing joint investments in natural resources, particularly lithium reserves, to align with the administration's priorities - especially when it comes to a competition with China over the rare-earth metals/minerals.
Lithium off-course, is a critical component in the manufacturing of batteries for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage - making it a highly sought-after resource amid the global shift towards green energy.
(side note: Ukraine's lithium deposits are estimated at approximately 500,000 tons, potentially accounting for up to 10% of global reserves. These deposits are primarily located in regions such as Kirovograd, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia.)
All of this builds up on the previous appeals on promised prestige: recall how in a symbolic move last November, Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of Ukraine’s foreign affairs committee, has nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, highlighting his potential role in resolving the conflict.
And more recently, President Zelensky has expressed optimism, arguing that Trump’s "strength and unpredictability" could be decisive in ending the war, provided they are directed strategically toward Russia.
This is a very smart diplomacy from Kyiv: call him strong, promise him future glory (Nobel Peace Prize), and offer him tangible material benefits (which advance the ‘‘America-first’’ interests) that he can sell to his domestic MAGA base.
Notice what Kyiv is not wasting time on anymore: higher ideals of sovereignty, importance of maintaining the ‘‘rules-based’’ order, respect for territorial integrity of all states, human rights and the dignity of a nation fighting resisting an imperialist dictator’s invasion.
(side note: the irony off-course is that in the long-term, defending the ‘‘rules-based’’ order is actually the most America-first policy ever: a global order that has the highest probability of guaranteeing the freedom, prosperity and security of American citizens. But with Trump, we give you prestige + resources is an easier pitch to make.)
3) Ukraine Develops Trembita: A Cost-Effective Missile for Strategic Independence.
Ukraine is developing the Trembita missile - priced at just $10,000, making it far cheaper than Western systems like the ATACMS (over $1 million per unit).
The current version has a range of 90 miles, but a longer-range version (400 miles/650 km) capable of reaching Moscow is under development and expected to be ready within a year.
President Zelensky has directed the production of 3,000 missiles and 30,000 long-range drones, emphasizing local manufacturing to reduce reliance on Western arms supplies.
While less precise and powerful than systems like Storm Shadow or SCALP, the Trembita is designed to strike larger targets, such as factories and military bases, rather than hardened bunkers or command centers.
The Trembita could become the world’s cheapest long-range weapon, ensuring Ukraine’s military resilience amid concerns about diminishing Western support.
4) Ukraine develops Electronic warfare resistance fiber-optic drones
Russian mil bloggers are worried that the Ukrainian MOD held a demo of fiber-optic drones, with more than 10 UAV models showcased, some of which can carry up to 3 kg. of payload: "This is (proof) that countermeasures to these drones need to be thought about right now."
They are right to worry, since fiber-optic drones aim to bolster drones’ resilience to electronic warfare/spoofing.
A lot of first-person view (FPV) drones both sides are being lost to EW.
Russia has been especially adept at such measures - so Ukraine trying to scale EW-resistant fiber-optic drones is very bad news for Moscow indeed.
5) Ukraine continues to target high-ranking Russian officers.
A Ukrainian operation critically injured Russian missile commander Captain Konstantin Nagayko - accused of orchestrating a deadly missile attack on a Kharkiv cafe in 2023.
This is part of a broader Ukrainian strategy targeting high-ranking Russian officials.
Recall that just three weeks ago, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of Russia's Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Defense Troops, was assassinated in Moscow on December 17, 2024.
A bomb concealed within an electric scooter detonated near his residence, resulting in his death and that of his assistant.
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) claimed responsibility for the attack, marking a significant escalation in covert operations amid the ongoing conflict.
(side note: even Putin had to admit it looked bad and attempted to distance responsibility for this fiasco by describing it as a "serious blunder" by Russian law enforcement and special services.)