Weekly Overview Cables - Ukraine war updates, Russia alienates another neighbor and North Korean human waves produce results in Kursk.

Happy new year and thank you for reading!

1) Final U.S. aid package of the year.

• The United States unveiled a sweeping $5.9 billion assistance package aimed at sustaining Kyiv’s war effort and shoring up its economy.

• Of the total, $2.5 billion is earmarked for military aid, including $1.25 billion drawn directly from U.S. weapons stockpiles to meet Ukraine’s immediate operational needs.

• An additional $1.22 billion is allocated via the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), enabling Kyiv to secure advanced arms and ammunition directly from American defense contractors—a signal of Washington’s long-term investment in Ukraine’s military resilience.

• Meanwhile, $3.4 billion in direct economic aid was disbursed by the U.S. Treasury, completing the final installment of funds authorized by Congress earlier this year.

• This is an important end of the year surge in aid to Ukraine.

• It aims to “Trump-proof” Ukraine for the next couple of months in two ways:

• 1) It will be politically difficult for Trump to come to power and thereafter impose a quick u-turn on additional aid.

• There is a bi-partisan support for Ukraine aid on the hill, and the optics of cutting off aid entirely after billions supplied by the Biden admin will make Trump look extremely one-sided.

• As such, it will risk sending the wrong message to Russians (who may overestimate Trump’s willingness to bully Ukraine into submission and push for a harder bargain) - ultimately prolonging the war and all of this backfiring and undermining Trump’s efforts to end the war quickly.

• 2) If Trump was to nonetheless press on with the cuts to Ukraine aid, at least Kyiv will have a runway/buffer - until: a) hopefully others in Europe and G7 step in to fill the void, or b) Trump realizes the error of this judgements and reverts back to funding Ukraine.

2) Azerbaijan airlines crash: Russia shoots down another civilian jet in its war against Ukraine.

• On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, an Embraer 190AR en route from Baku to Grozny, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, resulting in 38 fatalities among the 67 individuals on board.

• All available evidence (plenty of visual evidence of the damage + testimonies of surviving witnesses) points to a Russian surface-to-air missile firing at the jet when it tried to land in Grozny.

• This is a second similar incident: recall Malaysia Airlines flight downed by pro-Russia rebels (with a Buk air defense system supplied from Russia) in 2014 over Donbas and resulting in deaths of 298 people.

• (side note: 2024, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby did also confirm that preliminary evidence available to the U.S. pointed at a Russian air defense systems going rogue and mistakenly shooting at a passenger jet.)

• In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin extended condolences and “apologized” to President Aliyev, referring to the event as a "tragic incident" and apologized for it taking place over Russian airspace but refraining from acknowledging direct responsibility.

• But such an apology coming after days of misinformation (blaming the crash on a flock of birds - only to be immediately disproven by video footage showing clear signs of a missile shrapnel damage) and without acceptance of responsibility was nowhere near enough.

• Additionally, there were two more issues here:

• 1) Russian authorities denied the passenger jet landing slots at any nearby airports and decided to instead send it over the Caspian sea to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan and;

• 2) Throughout its journey, the passenger jet faced serious GPS jamming.

• The immediate question is therefore this: why would Russian authorities force the damaged plane to fly additional 309 miles (the distance from the original destination Grozny to Aktau) over the Caspian sea and throughout its journey interfere with its GPS navigation system?

• Could it be that they wanted this plane to crash into the sea - making it easier to cover the evidence?

• (side note: Russia would then presumably conduct an operation to recover the debris before anyone else (they have naval assets for such an operation) and there would presumably be no surviving witnesses to give incriminating testimony.)

• Russia is a rogue state - frequently targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, using chemical weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the Russian regime poisons and jails its political opposition.

• Is it really hard to imagine such a scenario where they would opt for murder of civilians to avoid another PR crisis?

• Perhaps not.

• But even without that ultimate charge, what Russia has done thus far is already criminally negligent:

• 1) they should have closed the airport if there were drone attacks requiring the use of Russian air defenses;

• 2) There is simply no good reason to deny a damaged aircraft an emergency space to land - it is implausible to claim that there was not a single Russian landing strip closer than 309 miles - open source intel disproves this notion definitively;

• 3) What about GPS jamming? How do we explain that?

• All of this pushed Azerbaijan’s Russia-friendly dictator into action.

• (side note: although the Azerbaijani public is decisively pro-west and pro-Ukraine (just like Georgians), its ruling dynastic regime has been very cozy with the Kremlin (again, just like in Georgia).)

• After days of silence, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev finally spoke out (after the pressure from the domestic political opposition leader Ali Karimli (who frequently attacks Aliyev for siding with Moscow over the West) and the outraged Azerbaijani public) - attributing the tragedy to Russian air defense systems and asserting that the aircraft was inadvertently targeted amid Russian efforts to counter a Ukrainian drone attack near Grozny.

• The incident has led to diplomatic tensions, with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev demanding that Russia formally admit fault, issue a comprehensive apology, provide appropriate compensation, and hold accountable those responsible for the incident.

• In the upcoming cables, we shall discuss the importance of Azerbaijan for Russia, and how the West should help Azerbaijan distance itself from Russia even further.

3) Ukraine continues to innovate in drone warfare

• Ukraine continues to enhance its military capabilities through innovative drone technology.

• Recent footage reveals the deployment of drones equipped with shotguns, effectively targeting and neutralizing Russian drones on the battlefield.

4) North Korean troops’ human wave attacks produce results in Kursk.

• Recent reports indicate that Ukrainian troops have suffered considerable casualties, losing over 40% of the territory initially seized early in August’s Kursk incursion into Russia.

• The presence of North Korean soldiers (so far, around 12k confirmed) bolstering Russian defenses has intensified the conflict, leading to fierce engagements and a challenging operational environment for Ukrainian units: Russians treat them as a dispensable resource in human-wave attacks.

• Ukraine is taking a significant toll - troops fighting in Kursk are also some of the most capable and advanced units available to Kyiv.

• It is unclear if Ukraine will be able to hold onto the territory for many more months - until these captured territories can be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Russia.

• With that said, the incursion have imposed substantial costs on Putin’s war machine and have furthermore led to significant political damage for Putin’s regime: significant discussion in Putin’s annual end of the year live Q&A session was dedicated to addressing citizen questions around the timeline for the return of the territories occupied by Ukraine - and in response to a citizen’s question, Putin failed to give a timeline on the recapture of Kursk.

• It is clear that Putin has suffered a significant loss to his prestige following this incursion: there was an immediate decline of several percentage points in his approval ratings following the incident, and many Russians fleeing the incursion accused Putin of ‘‘abandoning’’ them.

• (side note: although all opinion polls conducted in Russia must not be taken at a face value. It is a dictatorship after all, and all the usual caveats apply. With that said, there is a clear direction in these polls - one that is not favorable for Putin.)