Weekly Overview

Estimated Reading Time: 4 mins, 31 sec.

Azerbaijan/Armenia war and how Erdogan challenged Putin [for the millionth time]

• Erdogan attended a victory parade in Baku, Azerbaijan.

• This parade was organized to celebrate Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the 44 day war.

• Azerbaijan took back control and sovereignty over its internationally recognized territory - mountainous Karabakh region [confirmed by 4 UN resolutions + every single country recognizing it as such: including the U.S.].

• Turkey had a role to play in Azerbaijan’s success.

• Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones were widely used by the Azerbaijani army

• Very effectively too: Armenian tanks and heavy artillery were decimated.

• Given that Armenian army relied almost exclusively on Russian weapons [as part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Armenia benefits immensely from getting advanced Russian weapons - typically free of charge. In return they effectively forfeit their sovereignty] Putin was watching quite anxiously how Turkish drones were once again unstoppable [just like in Syria and Libya - Russian Pantsir and BUK missile systems were not effective.

• Azerbaijani air strikes [proper jets this time] also managed to destroy 4 S300 air defense systems. Again, massive ego bruise for Russia.

• Turkish military also played an outsized role in training Azeri troops.

• Well trained Azerbaijani special forces managed to retake historically and culturally important city of Shusha without firing a single artillery shell [or drone/air strikes].

• There were explicit orders to not damage the historically valued architecture. Interesting war this was..

• One thing Turkey did not do : send Syrian mercenaries. There is not much evidence for Armenia’s assertion.

• In fact it is quite likely that Armenia concocted this narrative to present itself as a small [orthodox] christian nation that is a a victim of barbaric attacks from Muslim savages of the middle east. Nice try.

• No seriously, this is a good example of an effective propaganda warfare. A lot of ordinary western observers bought into this narrative.

• Let’s not be too sorry for Armenia though:

• As Russia’s ally / or more accurately a vassal state, Armenia proper is well-protected.

• Under the CSTO treaty agreement, Russia would protect Armenia in case Azerbaijan invaded actual Armenian territory [instead of removing Armenian occupiers from its own lands].

• Some wonder: why did Russia not do something much more than that?

• Why didn’t Putin engage proactively in this war? To protect Armenia’s interests in Karabakh?

• Answer: he hates Armenian Prime Minister - Nikol Pashinyan.

• Pashinyan flirted with western countries too much [for Putin’s taste].

• By allowing Azerbaijan to conduct its military operations freely, Putin [via omission] inflicted massive military losses on Armenia - thereby punishing Pashinyan for expressing some interest in straying away from the Russian lordship.

• Putin actually hoped that Pashinyan would be overthrown by an angry crowd of protesters - people would no doubt blame him for the loss in this war.

• Armenians did indeed take to the streets - some credible reports even suggest assassination attempts on Pashinyan.

• But to this date, Pashinyan is still in power.

• Entirely possible that Armenian anger is not specific and that they would not prefer alternative [even more corrupt and incompetent] government. Current choices are all bad.

• But back to this parade. What happened? How exactly did Erdogan challenge Putin?

• He insisted that Turkish Bayraktar drones be present at the parade: to get the full air time.

• But that’s not all. He insisted that this presentation was to take place just before Azerbaijani army would show captured Russian tanks - the bounties of this war.

• A side by side comparison of Russian and Turkish military might.

• Clever. Very clever. Destroyed pantsirs, BUKs and S300s.. and now captured Russian tanks.

• How would this affect Russian military prestige across the world? How many of these weapons can Russia now sell? and at what price point?

• Any smart negotiator will point at these failures and drive a hard bargain.

• Would China for example demand lower prices? What about third world countries that already struggled with the Price?

• Putin did respond.

• One serious and one silly response.

• Silly response of putting a ban on Azerbaijani tomato imports was to mask a more devious response: giving permission to [or possibly instructing] Armenian guerrilla fighters to attack Azerbaijani civilians in newly recaptured Hadrut district of Karabakh.

• Russia has gatekeepers in Karabakh - not peacekeepers.

• In fact the very term, Russian peacekeepers is an oxymoron.

• On par with ‘‘Chinese start up’’ [more like IP stealing copycat]

Iran’s eternal insecurity

• Iran’s primary [inward focused] insecurity has to do with its huge Azeri ethnic minority, which according to different sources ranges from 25 to 32 million.

• These ethnic Azeris are inconveniently concentrated in northern parts of Iran - close to Turkish and Azerbaijani borders.

• Iran is always paranoid of Azeris trying to break apart - with state level support from both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

• In this latest war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, thousands of ethnic Azeris were watching the battles on the Iranian side of the border - cheering Azerbaijani soldiers.

• This + Erdogan’s grand ambitions [and ability to back them confidently] terrifies Iranian mullahs.

• Not without merit. For a long time now, U.S. neocon hawks were discussing possible divide & conquer tactics centered precisely on this ethnic division.

• So given this context, it was not surprising that Erdogan’s recital of a poem [about Azerbaijan’s historic partition - with southern region falling into and still being under Iranian hands] at the aforementioned military parade, gave a proper scare to the Iranian leadership.

• Indeed, Iranian FM [not known for his diplomatic ability] went on a twitter tirade against Erdogan.

• Some Iranian members of parliament even resorted to open threats against Erdogan.

• So why did Erdogan do this? Why would he recite this poem? knowing very well that this would provoke the Mullahs?

• Well to do precisely that and:

• 1) test Azerbaijani public opinion/appetite for a possible adventure.

• 2) provoke Iran into faux conflict and potentially gain a face saving excuse for rapprochement with Israel - enemy of my enemy is my friend .. not that I like you Netanyahu.. but let’s work together.

• 3) Gauge Russian response and

• 4) See what the US has to say about this. Would they give a tacit endorsement for this campaign?

• Number 4 is a long-shot. I doubt that Erdogan actually wants to provoke Iran into a real conflict. At least not in the short-term.

• Turkish economy is suffering hard. Military too is overstretched over two theaters [Libya and Syria] with conflict over eastern mediterranean gas exploration still hanging over his head.

• Still, no harm in intelligence gathering. Especially when this is for the future endeavors.

• Imagine if JCPOA v2 fails. Iranian hardliners win next year’s elections and conflict with the US deepens. What then? Would US be open to this option?

• Unlikely. Any US involvement would probably be limited to long-distance warfare.

• With main brunt carried by Israeli air strikes.

• Causing another civil war in the middle east is the last thing the US administration would want.

• Having said that.. this civil war need not be similar to others. Given that there is a clear desire and a path for a new reunification - power vacuum would not occur [like in Syria].

• Furthermore, reducing the Iranian state in physical size and demographic capacity, might not be a bad idea. Particularly if the main beneficiary is your NATO ally.

• Iranian might and ambitions for and ability to executive proxy wars/support for destabilizing activities would be greatly reduced.

• Something to consider…