Weekly Overview

Estimated Reading Time: 4 mins, 58 sec.

Unbearable blatancy of Iranian maneuvers

• A true diplomatic heavyweight, Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif, twitted the following:

• ‘‘New intelligence from Iraq indicate that Israeli agent-provocateurs are plotting attacks against Americans — putting an outgoing (President Donald) Trump in a bind with a fake casus belli (act justifying war),”

• Right, first of all. What intelligence from Iraq?

• Are you suggesting that Iraqi government knows of some devious stuff brewing on its territory and refuses to inform America?

• Because, that is a serious allegation against another country!

• Or.. are you implying that you have spies in Iraq? an admission?

• Secondly, it is rather obvious to everyone that this is an utter BS.

• Israel would never do that against the U.S.

• Even if [in a hypothetical parallel universe] Israeli officials were that treacherous and backstabbing, they would surely not go ahead with such a plan where risks [of consequent repercussions after getting caught] clearly far outweigh any potential benefit.

• Implementing this plan and messing up, would lead to Israel losing its alliance with U.S. - at least for a generation.

• Iran knows this. America knows this. Everyone in the foreign policy establishment knows this.

• So.. why such a blatant slander?

• Simple: this is not directed at decision makers.

• The intended audience is a large proportion of a) anti-semitic and b) ambivalent citizens of America.

• People believe what they want. Social media leads to confirmation bias on steroids.

• There are already significant swaths of U.S. electorate who believe that Israel is a nefarious state that manipulates America to fight its wars.

• This is especially true when it comes to the progressive and young portions of the electorate - those that overwhelmingly rejected Trump and came out in droves to make Biden victory possible.

• This disinformation campaign is aimed at precisely this segment of the population.

• The aim to create toxic feelings and associations around Israel - making it harder for the incoming Biden administration to publicly back Israel with the same fervor [that Trump did].

• So that, later on, when Israel pushes America to reject JCPOA, a lot of people will turn around and say ‘‘ well you don’t get to have a say in this’’.

• Given their insidious nature, and long-term damaging effects, such disinformation campaigns must be analyzed and explained to the U.S. public.

• So far, both U.S. and Israeli leadership did not do much in that direction - mere dismissal of the ridiculous accusations will not suffice…

• The very same week, Iran announced its intention of enriching its Uranium to up to 20% purity at Fordow site.

• For context, JCPOA sets the limit at 3.67%, and Iran is currently [in breach] at 4.5%.

• Nevertheless, even though 20% is a significant jump from the current levels, it is nowhere near 90% - number qualifying as weapons-grade.

• This is also intended as a last minute grasp for leverage for the upcoming talks with Biden administration.

• They want to revert back to 3.67% and make it look like a big deal - a big sacrifice.

• Hope is that this would then obviate any need for extra concessions on things that matter to Iran- its proxies in middle east/ballistic missile program.

• In the meantime, it is also a short-term tactic to keep Iranian hardliners at bay -with presidential election coming up in June.

• Also, a nation truly intent upon rapidly escalating towards a weapons-grade level uranium enrichment, would surely not announce these plans in a letter to IAEA - which Iran did in this very instance.

B-52 bombers and contextual credibility of deterrence

• America decided to fly its two B-52 bombers over Persian gulf.

• Exactly why is not clear.

• Messages/Actions/Demonstrations that are intended to deter an adversary only work when the general context is credible.

• Iran understands that exceptionally heavy [in fact so heavy that they are called super-fortresses] B-52 bombers, with their lack of flight maneuverability, are not exactly state of the art machines that will be used to bomb Iranian nuclear sites.

• Sending these aircrafts on actual combat missions, to face Iranian S300 SAMs would be an exceptionally silly decision.

• Especially when there are significantly better options - stealthy B-2s are much better suited for the job of carrying MOP bunker-buster bombs, whilst evading S300 radars.

• There is also a wider context - Biden is getting inaugurated in only three weeks.

• It is obvious that any significant escalation this close to change in power is extremely unlikely.

Turkey emphasizes its loyalty to NATO and the U.S.

• ‘‘Turkey’s relations with Russia are not an alternative to its ties with NATO and the European Union’’

• Said Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu.

• Now, ordinarily one could say that this is nothing special.

• In fact, many would expect a NATO state to say this as a matter of fact.

• Well.. the reality is not quite so.

• For starters, some NATO countries have better relationship with Russia than Turkey does.

• For example: Greece and Hungary. I find it hard to imagine leaders of these countries making such public comments any time soon. [Nor do they have to. Geopolitical landscapes are different. They are not formally pressed on the matter].

• Secondly, context is key:

• This statement is made only weeks after U.S. imposed sanctions on Turkey - a fellow NATO state, over S400 purchase [speaking of which, there are currently U.S. - Turkey talks on setting up a working group to assess potential impact of s400s on NATO - which is great news of de-escalation in the relationship]

• This statement was furthermore made in a joint press-conference with Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.

• This is significant.

• The bear was physically present, listening how it is not considered as an alternative to NATO and the EU…

Putin doubles down on his Navalny line

• Instead of backing down [slightly at least], blaming a rogue operation, and promising a thorough investigation, Putin chose to double down with his official Navalny line - that he was in cahoots with the CIA, and that the whole poisoning fiasco was a lie and a slander targeting the FSB and Russian government in general.

• To demonstrate his confidence and resolve to his inner circle of Siloviki, Putin green-lighted [and given the recent fiasco, you can be rest assured that any further Navalny actions will always be discussed with Putin - no one would make a move without his authorization from here onwards] criminal charges against his assistant [for an intolerable crime of finding the assassin and knocking on his door with the intention of revealing his identity to the public].

• He then gave an ok for new criminal charges against Navalny - accusing him of corruption. Role - reversal.

• Of course, by doing all of these, by shamelessly pursuing Navalny, Putin wants to imply that he genuinely does not see Navalny as a victim - that as if he is sincere in his assertions that the poisoning never happened. That all of it is mere slander.

• Unfortunately, according to the latest polls, approximately 72% Russians either believe Putin or are unsure as to what the truth is.

• Such is the grip of Putin’s propaganda machinery over Russia.

• Things are not going well for Putin though.

• Navalny will remain as a serious challenge to his regime.

• Parliamentary [Duma] elections will take place in September - given the wider discontent due to the economic hardships, COVID response failure and recent corruption revelations and smart voting tactics [both thanks to Navalny], things look shaky for Putin’s United Russia party.

• Of course there is no doubt that elections will be rigged in their favor.

• But how much rigging will it take? How much of a governmental/bureaucratic involvement would be necessary? how blatant would it need to be?

• In the age of social media, extreme measures will be captured on video and evidence of fraud will be spread across the country in the matter of minutes.

• Such brazen governmental fraud can inspire large protest movements - see Belarus.

• Which is the last things that Putin needs on his hands..