Weekly Overview

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Japan’s Taiwan plea - timely, valuable, and yet tactless in its execution

• State Minister of Defense Yasuhide Nakayama gave an interview to Reuters.

• In it, he outlines challenges posed by China:

• How China is dominating Hong Kong and that Taiwan is presumably next in line for a takeover.

• It is indeed great that a U.S. ally in the region is so direct about Chinese transgressions, and clearly desires a tougher and more steadfast U.S. leadership in the region.

• Japan is also backing its statements with concrete actions.

• It recently passed a record $52 billion defense budget.

• Though the fact that it is investing into long-range anti-ship missiles suggests it taking Russian threat more seriously. Since potential naval clashes with China are unlikely to be long-distance.

• Long-range anti-ship missiles are more suitable for a potential Russian arctic naval fleet reinforcements arriving from the Bering sea - that is, if the conflict over Kuril islands ever takes place.

• Nonetheless, overall, Japan is taking action.

• Having said all of these, the latest interview by Mr Nakayama was rather tactless towards the U.S.

• Here is why:

• 1) The Japanese defense minister effectively drew the red line in the region for the U.S. - when no one was asking for his counsel: “There’s a red line in Asia - China and Taiwan… How will Joe Biden in the White House react in any case if China crosses this red line?”

• Right… so who was asking you to draw this red line for the U.S. ?

• Substantively, Taiwan should indeed be a red line for America.

• But that is not the point.

• It is up to the U.S. - not to its ally in the region to draw red lines for it.

• This is a diplomatic faux pax. It puts the U.S. into an awkward position.

• Either:

• 1. accept and create a precedent for other allies to draw red lines for you.

• or

• 2. ignore/stay quiet - and risk suggesting that a) there is a lack of coordination and understanding with a regional ally - on crucial matter too!

• and b) that the U.S. may not indeed be ready to declare Taiwan a red line.

• 2) Diplomatic genius of Mr Nakayama did not end there. He also said “So far, I haven’t yet seen a clear policy or an announcement on Taiwan from Joe Biden. I would like to hear it quickly, then we can also prepare our response on Taiwan in accordance,”.

• Great. Very cool. You have a problem with Biden admin - say it privately.

• What is the point of doing this so openly? Causing an embarrassment in front of China?

• Or maybe his genius plan is to blackmail the Biden administration into action?

• 3) Finally he concludes with ‘‘ The United States is the leader of the democratic countries. I have a strong feeling to say: America, be strong!”

• At least thank god for the first part of that statement.

• But telling America to be strong?! That is extremely condescending.

• Firstly, because it publicly implies that there is another possibility - that America may not indeed demonstrate strength.

• Secondly, because true leader of the world is not told what to do - or act like. This very statement damages U.S. power and prestige - it implies that America may no longer be of the same caliber - all powerful and endlessly undeterred.

• That this is coming from an ally that is supposedly reliant on U.S. protection is doubly insulting.

• So Mr Nakayama, next time you feel like saying something, say it in private! or write it in your diary… whatever you end up doing, check yourself and educate yourself in some diplomatic skills.

• Don’t encourage China even more by suggesting that regional U.S. allies have concerns about America’s resolve.

• Of course, none of this is to say that the recent U.S. leadership has been perfect and played absolutely no part in causing such sentiments in our allies.

• Trump’s flip-flops and Obama’s unenforced red lines were very damaging.

• Can you imagine Churchill telling FDR to ‘‘be strong’’ ? or Thatcher to Reagan?

• Or any allied state telling this to the U.S. administration up until Obama took over?

• Extremely unlikely, if not outright inconceivable.

Xi Jinping’s counterpunch against Jack Ma

• Last week I wrote about Alibaba’s refusal to continue with Uighur facial recognition software, and how this was an act of retaliation against Xi Jinping.

• Well, it did not take too long for Xi to come up with a response: Chinese regulators are now investigating both Alibaba and Ant group for monopolistic practices.

• Only days after Alibaba’s Uighur policy reversal.

• Xi Jinping realizes that he needs to show who is the boss - and quickly too.

• This swift move is calculated to deter any potential Jack Ma followers from ganging up on Xi - thereby encouraging an intra-CCP coup.

• Structurally, Xi Jinping’s personal survival is at odds with Chinese national interest/strategy of overtaking America in tech competition.

• The more he reigns in these giant giants, the weaker they will become in competition with America’s tech industry.

• Great news for America.

Azerbaijan to play the role of a mediator in Turkey/ Israel detente

• This would have been extremely unlikely only a year ago.

• Azerbaijan still does not have an embassy in Israel - out of desire not to annoy Iran [ that sits on its southern border and is a constant threat of Shiite terrorism/secessionism].

• Thanks to Iran’s uncanny ability to annoy every single country on earth, including its two Turkic neighbors [previously on ok terms] , a new opportunity presents itself for both America and Israel.

• Israel/Turkey/Azerbaijan alliance is strongly in U.S interests.

• Unlike Arab ‘‘allies’’ of convenience, both Turkey and Azerbaijan are much more culturally aligned with Europe and the west in general.

• Azerbaijan is perhaps the most secular Muslim - majority country [legacy of both Zoroastrianism - (Azerbaijan is commonly referred to as ‘‘land of fire’’due to its fire worship) and 70 years of atheist Soviet rule]

• Turkey.. well Turkey is a NATO state and majority of its social institutions and legal structure is based on French/Continental civil law/bureaucratic system.

• Crucially, both Turkey and Azerbaijan are headed towards a clash with Russia - in addition to Iran.

• No other country in Eastern Europe/ Middle East has a brewing conflict with both Russia and Iran.

• These common geopolitical interests make them indispensable to the U.S. foreign policy in the region.