What The Houthi Campaign Pause Shows & How It Affects Negotiations With Iran.

• The relentless airstrike campaign that lasted for almost two months has finally produced some results.

• There was a period where the U.S. Air Force and Navy were concerned that the supply of crucial Tomahawk missiles would be exhausted from repeated strikes on the Houthis.

• But no power is invincible - and the Houthis are no exception.

• It is clear that after suffering lots of punishment from these airstrikes, Houthis latched onto the offer (mediated by Oman) to stop the fighting.

• Houthis are promising to not attack U.S. ships and other commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea that they can reach.

• Although the Houthis have repeatedly proven themselves the most resilient force within the Axis of Resistance, they too depend on logistics: launch pads, transportation routes, ports, and physical depots.

• The U.S. airstrikes targeted these critical nodes - and succeeded at least to some extent.

• Donald Trump is not wrong to call them ‘‘brave’’ for their ability to withstand so much U.S. punishment.

• (side note: not wrong in purely technical terms. It is another matter whether it is prudent to honor a militia like Houthis in that way. There was little need to boost their prestige and thus morale..)

• But he is in fact incorrect in asserting that the Houthis have capitulated.

• Their promise to stop attacking U.S. shipping is notable, but a full capitulation would have been Houthi commitment to stop all attacks against parties that it has declared its enemy - chiefly, Israel.

• Indeed, it is notable how not attacking Israel is not part of this deal.

• And the Houthi leadership were very shrewd and quick to focus on this: claiming that they have successfully separated Trump from Netanyahu.

• In saying this, they are not entirely wrong either: why wouldn’t Trump include the requirement that they abstain from targeting Israel as well?

• Perhaps they did originally try to press for that too - but Houthis were likely not budging on that, and the Trump admin probably calculated that devoting more resources and precious missiles to this campaign was not worth it.

• Regardless of the motivation, the effect is indeed the same: the U.S. left Israel to deal with future Houthi attacks.

• Houthis are correct to argue that in effect, they separated Netanyahu from Trump.

• We will examine the implications of the campaign in more detail below, but as we said at its outset back in March, this was a sound and strategically justified operation.

• The Biden administration, along with the UK, had previously initiated similar actions but stopped short of finishing the job.

• This newer, more sustained campaign appears to have fulfilled key U.S. strategic objectives: reopening trade routes and securing American shipping.

• Leaving aside the issue with Israel, the commitment to leave American and commercial shipping alone is already a serious accomplishment in its own right.

This then highlights a vital point - military objectives can be achieved when they are:

• Clear

• Precise

• Non-maximalist

• Aligned with actual capabilities

• The Houthi campaign met all of these criteria.

• The U.S. had no intention of invading Yemen or pursuing regime change.

• The goal was to degrade and pressure the Houthis enough to stop their attacks on U.S. interests.

• That goal was met.

Strategic Analysis on Houthi De-escalation, Iran-U.S. Negotiations, and Israel’s Escalation Dynamics