What we are not observing in the Iran-Israel conflict so far - Part II.

• In a matter of just two days, Trump has suddenly changed his tune on Iran. At first, he was using Israeli blows as leverage to push Iran for negotiation.

• Now, we see his sudden departure from the G7 summit, holding a national security meeting today with his top advisers, and deliberating whether to join in Israeli strikes.

• His rhetoric has escalated too.

• He is now boasting that he knows the precise location of the Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, and it's only his wish that it prevents his assassination.

• And even his vice president, who presumably is more reluctant to devote military force on Iran, now openly says that Trump may indeed take military measures against Iranian enrichment plans.

• Crucially, however, we're not still seeing regime change rhetoric.

• Trump may indeed join these Israeli airstrikes and drop the GBU-57 bunker buster bombs delivered by the B-2s (stationed at Diego Garcia) on the deeply buried Fordow enrichment plant—and this is not necessarily against U.S. interests either.

• There's an argument for these airstrikes - as long as no U.S. troops are involved on the ground and the U.S. doesn't pursue regime change policy without a clear objective and plan on who is going to replace the Iranian regime.

• But limited strikes against Fordow is not something that the U.S. should reflexively abstain from doing just because it's also something that Netanyahu wants…

• It is, in fact, in U.S. interests that Iran's enrichment capacity and weaponization chances diminish further, and destroying Fordow would accomplish that.

• (side note: Now, of course, as we have previously argued, there's also other ways for Iran to secure nuclear weapons. For example, going to North Korea and offering them lots of cash and fuel in return for even a small bomb that could act as a deterrence against Israel. But such a move would open Pandora's box of all sorts of issues and is a totally different discussion that we might revisit in the future.)

• But Trump may actually join in - not via slow deliberation and strategic thought, but merely to look tough and be the one to deliver the final nail on the coffin in this military campaign.

• Swooping in to snatch the glory which, let's be honest here, belongs to the IDF.

• It is hard to tell whether Trump will join - because we don't know exactly what motivates him in this particular scenario.

• But as time goes on and indicators (like the U.S. Naval assets and refueling planes moving into position) pile up, we are now quickly approaching a point where it is becoming more likely than not that the U.S. would join.

• In the meantime, however, let's revisit the important things that we are not observing in this war.

• This is now part two. Read part one here.