Midweekly Overview

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Retaliating to Russian Hacking

• As a reader of this blog, I assume you already know most of the [so far known] details about Russian hacking scandal.

• Without going into too many details, two notable mentions

• 1) Russia managed to hack into the DHS and Pentagon - this is huge. These institutions must normally be the best protected.

• This is quite embarrassing to the US. Time to invest seriously into cyber space. Build proactive cyber force. Just like in the UK.

• US is rightly investing a lot into the space force - but if cyber defenses are vulnerable enough for even the pentagon to be hacked, then it is time to get back to basics.

• After all, Space force will be the most computing dependent branch of the US military. Taking proactive steps to upgrade cyber capabilities is now vital.

• 2) Fire eye - a premier cybersecurity company that is supposedly in charge of analyzing IT risks and malicious software was also hacked.

• There is clear gap in the market of B2B cyber security software providers.

• I expect some entrepreneurs will come up with something to address this gap

• Maybe Peter Thiel could assemble a team of cyber security engineers and build something incredible - like he did with Palantir.

• Needless to say, Russia has crossed too many lines. Retaliation is in order.

• Not ‘‘ engagement ‘‘ or ‘‘reset’’ - none of that pathetic weak nonsense.

• Not even usual route of sanctions - that would not suffice as a response for such grave insult.

• Proper retaliation. The prestige and prowess of the U.S. has been challenged.

• All realpolitik players know that the reflexive honor/ prestige/ prowess of a state matters. A lot.

• Just look at the leaked pentagon papers - where the U.S. administration admitted that ‘‘70%’’ of the reasoning for military intervention in Vietnam was for the protection of ‘‘U.S. prestige’’.

• Not justifying or debating whether or not Vietnam war was a mistake. Pointing out the importance of world standing and optics.

• Before we can proceed with how, let as address the burning question: wouldn’t the U.S. retaliation escalate things further - potentially into an open conflict?

• No it would not.

• Putin himself is a realpolitik player. He knows that retaliation is in order and he will certainly absorb the blow [with possibly a minor face saving response]

• All great players of realpolitik know the importance of the demonstration of state prowess/dominance.

• Especially for someone to the east of the Hajnal line [where reflexive honor is instinctively more important] like Putin.

• Even Trump knows this.

• Recall how the U.S. did not respond to Iran’s missile attack against its Iraq base in January of this year.

• This is because the attack was a response for Suleimani’s assassination. U.S. leadership simply understood that Iran has to respond somehow to save face.

• So they decided to absorb the blow.

• So how do we respond?

• Not by targeting their military

• Because we don’t know exactly how well they are protected.

• What if Russian SVR is doing an excellent job of protecting their Ministry of Defense? Can you imagine the embarrassment of attempting to hack their version of pentagon and failing?

• Russians would be gloating.

• They would very happily report about our failed attempts.

• To get our pentagon hacked and then fail at hacking their corresponding target - double the embarrassment.

• Better follow the strategy that has a higher probability of success and that will actually hurt.

• A wise under secretary of state once said ‘‘ what if we erased a couple of zeros in the bank accounts of their siloviki leaders?’’

• Sounds like an excellent plan.

• Virtually all of the SVR and FSB generals are corrupt. A lot of them have secret bank accounts. Attack those and;

• 1) have the cloak of reasonableness: that the U.S. did not target facilities that could impact the Russian public in their day to day security - instead attacking the actual perpetrators.

• 2) Inflict actual injury where it hurts.

Russian State Poisoning Opposition Leader Navalny

• Bellingcat had a great investigative journalism piece exposing exactly how FSB tracked and most certainly also poisoned Navalny.

• To me, this of course was a mere confirmation that the Russian state was behind this.

• The very basic motive/capacity questions : who would benefit/who would have the balls to poison a very popular opposition leader with a global profile.

• Then there was the revelation from Germany that a new variation of the ‘‘novichok’’ nerve agent was identified in Navalny.

• Something that only a state level operation would be capable of re-creating - certainly not a commercial producer acting alone.

• Putin’s response was uncharacteristically uncool and too implausible [even for his standards]

• In his annual marathon interview he said that Navalny was not worth poisoning.

• Yeah right…

• This sounds as plausible as a man who just got rejected by a 9/10 at a bar telling his buddy ‘‘well she is a whore anyways. Not really worth it’’

• Analogy is not only for humorous purposes : both 9/10 at a bar and Navalny are high-value prizes.

• Navalny is definitely worth poisoning [if one has that mentality] .

• For starters, he is incredibly popular across the board.

• His popularity is based on his anti-corruption big-tent appeal that crosses all ideological, class, gender and age barriers.

• Furthermore, given the issue / focus - he never runs out of material in Russia. He has a staying power. His popularity has been remarkable resilient and consistent for at least the past 7 years.

• He is also quite nationalistic - unlike other liberal opposition members.

• For example the [very liberal] late Boris Nemtsov was too cosmopolitan/western in his lifestyle and values. Too much for an average Russian.

• There is no such issue with Navalny.

• He is also an excellent organizer and comes up with intelligent maneuvers.

• Case in point: his latest ‘‘smart voting’’ ploy - a tactical voting ruse aiming to defeat Putin’s ‘‘United Russia’’ party in elections all across the country

• Now, notice how earlier I said Russian state - not Putin specifically.

• Even though I am sure ]beyond reasonable doubt] that the state agency was indeed behind the poisoning, it may not have been Putin himself giving the order.

• So then… who would do this?

• Perhaps someone who would benefit from the constant internal political tensions that would prevent any political reforms.

• Let’s backtrack. First off, why would anyone high up [and that person needs to be high up] think that such reforms may have been possible in the nearest future?

• It all has to do with Putin’s succession plans.

• Putin has a problem. He has no successor that he trusts completely - that he would be willing to give his power to and resign quietly.

• His power vertical depends on exactly that - power.

• Power only systems don’t like competitors. Where is the guarantee that his successor would not finish him off?

• After all, the new leader would not want the shadow of Putin hanging over his head. He would want complete autonomy - and that would give him full deference of those under him.

• Putin knows this.

• He knows the risk of leaving and giving the power to someone else.

• This is why he introduced constitutional changes that would keep him in power until at least 2036 [or so he wishes].

• So what might he do instead? How about gradual political reforms and establishing an actual rule of law.

• Once Russia could have all that - he could then retire gracefully feeling more secure that his wealth would not be touched arbitrarily. That his successor would not simply toss him into prison.

• The very fact that Navalny has offices in almost every corner of Russia [usually opposition HQs in Russia get shut down under various facades], and that he could go on freely challenging United Russia with his smart voting stratagem - these very facts could convince wannabe successors that Putin [by tolerating these transgressions] is slowly moving in the direction of reform.

• This poisoning could then create new conflicts and raise the tensions back - where Putin’s hand would be limited.

• We don’t have direct evidence for this analysis. But this is the beauty of realpolitik analysis - using empathy and deep knowledge of adversary’s political system to engage in probable scenario analyses.

• Also…

• This poisoning is great new cause for extra Russian sanctions. Get EU organized [and led by eager and so far highly involved] Germany. Let them inflict significant injury on Russia with new sanctions too.

US Recognizes Moroccan Sovereignty Over Western Sahara

• I won’t go into the underlying rationale.

• Or whether the move was correct or not.

• I will comment on its execution: U.S. did this alone. No other country followed suit.

• This is pretty damaging to U.S. standing and soft power prestige in the world.

• This is the kinda stuff that Putin does - in process revealing that Russia has no allies willing to follow its directives.

• So: should have consulted with at least UK and Israel. Definitely not alone.

• Bad look. Can de-legitimize future recognitions - and the value and impact of U.S. acknowledgments in general.