You touched on Taiwan in this cable. I was considering that now would be a perfect time for Taiwan to declare it's independence of China as a separate democratic country and link the process to Ukraine's fight at self-determination without a bigger neighbor trying to control it. Then the the US, UK, Australia and/or Japan could recognize this new state. With most of the world strongly behind Ukraine, I doubt China would risk bringing on the world's ire just to keep a democratic people from just wanting to determine their own future the same as Ukraine. What is your opinion?
I agree that the political context for such a move is indeed ideal.
But we would need to see a better military assessment - the situation on the ground. China will definitely respond strongly. They don't have troops ready for an invasion / amphibious attack. So instead, they would most likely resort to "dilemma imposition" tactics: for example, their navy could encircle Taiwan and impose a blockade - forcing the US (and allies to respond). How would the US react here? Since technically, this would not be an invasion or an attack. I am not sure that the current administration would send in the ships to confront China with force/ break the blockade via use of American navy. And if we don't do that, then Taiwan would suffer immensely under a blockade - and if a starving island sees a lack of Western support (to lift the blockade), it might decide to accept Beijing's demands.
All this is to say that the political decision would have to be made only if the US Navy was present (in sufficient numbers) to prevent a blockade of Taiwan - so that this dilemma is not imposed. And that is assuming this admin supports such a move.
You touched on Taiwan in this cable. I was considering that now would be a perfect time for Taiwan to declare it's independence of China as a separate democratic country and link the process to Ukraine's fight at self-determination without a bigger neighbor trying to control it. Then the the US, UK, Australia and/or Japan could recognize this new state. With most of the world strongly behind Ukraine, I doubt China would risk bringing on the world's ire just to keep a democratic people from just wanting to determine their own future the same as Ukraine. What is your opinion?
I agree that the political context for such a move is indeed ideal.
But we would need to see a better military assessment - the situation on the ground. China will definitely respond strongly. They don't have troops ready for an invasion / amphibious attack. So instead, they would most likely resort to "dilemma imposition" tactics: for example, their navy could encircle Taiwan and impose a blockade - forcing the US (and allies to respond). How would the US react here? Since technically, this would not be an invasion or an attack. I am not sure that the current administration would send in the ships to confront China with force/ break the blockade via use of American navy. And if we don't do that, then Taiwan would suffer immensely under a blockade - and if a starving island sees a lack of Western support (to lift the blockade), it might decide to accept Beijing's demands.
All this is to say that the political decision would have to be made only if the US Navy was present (in sufficient numbers) to prevent a blockade of Taiwan - so that this dilemma is not imposed. And that is assuming this admin supports such a move.