Where is Lukashenko in all this? Is he willingly doing Putin’s bidding, or under duress, or both? Russia is overstretched and could not seriously threaten Byelorussua right now, correct? If Russia did invade them, most citizens would face a quandary: they don’t want to be ruled by either dictator.
both. In that, he would rather do less and maintain options. Invasion is unlikely - mainly because it is unnecessary: when push comes to shove, (provided that they don't receive some ironclad amnesty guarantees from the EU/US) Belarusian KGB will always prefer to side with Putinist regime over any other alternatives - as in, they would try to topple Lukashenko (doing Putin's bidding) if he went in the completely opposite direction and sided with the EU (political reforms etc).
Where is Lukashenko in all this? Is he willingly doing Putin’s bidding, or under duress, or both? Russia is overstretched and could not seriously threaten Byelorussua right now, correct? If Russia did invade them, most citizens would face a quandary: they don’t want to be ruled by either dictator.
both. In that, he would rather do less and maintain options. Invasion is unlikely - mainly because it is unnecessary: when push comes to shove, (provided that they don't receive some ironclad amnesty guarantees from the EU/US) Belarusian KGB will always prefer to side with Putinist regime over any other alternatives - as in, they would try to topple Lukashenko (doing Putin's bidding) if he went in the completely opposite direction and sided with the EU (political reforms etc).