Thank you for that insight. I did a couple of papers on the Timo L'Este independence struggle when I was in grad school. I thought that maybe Indonesia was holding it up out of spite.
Impressive! Yeah, I think their calculation has changed - they don't want poverty and instability there + East Timor within ASEAN is a buffer against China - otherwise China will continue to insert itself into East Timor with its cheap development credit (which East Timor would be foolish to not accept - given lack of other options), and so Indonesia does not want a Chinese colony on its doorstep.
Singapore is stopping it. They (understandable) assess that East Timor will slow down ASEAN's economic integration plans. They are economically underdeveloped and rely on foreign aid. Not a good fit. But such concerns should be secondary to geopolitical ones - especially since ASEAN is not as economically integrated as EU - and if the latter can afford to risk admitting countries like Moldova for geopolitical reasons, then ASEAN should do the same (especially given that by the time ASEAN reaches the point of aspired economic integration, East Timor will largely catch up - in fact, the very membership will help it to get there).
On another matter, what is holding up the final accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO? This will require a unanimous vote, correct? Could Russia lean on Orban or someone to stop it?
Correct. And ratified by each member's national legislature. Hungary unlikely to stop it. Russia could not offer much more than gas. And stopping it would be hugely damaging to Hungary (and they also don't have a legitimate grievance like Turkey)
Thank you for that insight. I did a couple of papers on the Timo L'Este independence struggle when I was in grad school. I thought that maybe Indonesia was holding it up out of spite.
Impressive! Yeah, I think their calculation has changed - they don't want poverty and instability there + East Timor within ASEAN is a buffer against China - otherwise China will continue to insert itself into East Timor with its cheap development credit (which East Timor would be foolish to not accept - given lack of other options), and so Indonesia does not want a Chinese colony on its doorstep.
Thanks. I’ve been concerned about this trip. Btw, on ASEAN: any insight into why East Timor has not been admitted?
Singapore is stopping it. They (understandable) assess that East Timor will slow down ASEAN's economic integration plans. They are economically underdeveloped and rely on foreign aid. Not a good fit. But such concerns should be secondary to geopolitical ones - especially since ASEAN is not as economically integrated as EU - and if the latter can afford to risk admitting countries like Moldova for geopolitical reasons, then ASEAN should do the same (especially given that by the time ASEAN reaches the point of aspired economic integration, East Timor will largely catch up - in fact, the very membership will help it to get there).
On another matter, what is holding up the final accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO? This will require a unanimous vote, correct? Could Russia lean on Orban or someone to stop it?
Correct. And ratified by each member's national legislature. Hungary unlikely to stop it. Russia could not offer much more than gas. And stopping it would be hugely damaging to Hungary (and they also don't have a legitimate grievance like Turkey)