Cables On The Assassination Of Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Putin vs Prigozhin - The Final Act.
Unless you believe that Wagner leader Prigozhin’s private Embraer Legacy 600 Jet (equipped with the most impressive modern avionics, and a jet model with only one other accident in its record (not caused by a mechanical failure) since its first production in 2022) was violently broken up in flight (with debris scattered all over), on a clear day with excellent weather, performing a routine flight and in excellent conditions of visibility, was brought down by accident precisely two months after his attempted coup, then one should assume (like the entire world - including senior US intel agencies) that he (and his closest lieutenants) was indeed assassinated.
And if he was assassinated, then it was very clearly Putin behind this assassination - whether directly or indirectly.
That is to say, even if someone else was directly behind this hit (say, Defense Minister Shoygu using the opportunity of ruined Prigozhin - Putin relations to get rid of his prime enemy) murder of such a high-profile man (with an impact on Russian foreign policy & campaigns) could only have been possible with Putin’s go ahead.
And Prigozhin’s assassination was not at all surprising.
Back in June, and only three days after the attempted coup, these cables had written the following:
..All of this leads us to the final (for now) conclusion: the current status quo & balance of powers is simply untenable.Putin must surely know that an actual resolution of this “problem” leads to only one inevitable path: actual “liquidation” of Prigozhin.
And it is inconceivable that Prigozhin doesn’t also realize this (he can ask Ukraine about the reliability of the Kremlin’s security guarantees (Budapest memorandum 1994)) - and so, it would be surprising not to see him prepare for such eventualities in advance - and perhaps, make another comeback.
So the fact of Prigozhin’s assassination was not at all surprising - what was surprising, was that Prigozhin was (at least ostensibly) operating under an impression that it was truly all water under the bridge..
It seems like, to his detriment, he bought into the lie that all was good.
He was traveling freely all over Russia - thinking that he was free from further mortal danger…
Now then, the following analysis will be conducted under a presumption that Prigozhin is indeed dead.
It is hard to think of any other situation/context where the death of a globally well-known persona in a plane crash, would come under doubt.
But this is Prigozhin we are talking about - a man of many disguises and one that had a powerful incentive to actually use it.
So, we shall agree with the UK’s defense intel that there is in fact no definitive proof of his death.
To be clear, the chances of him still being alive and hiding somewhere are very very slim - but they are not zero.
It is a private jet after all - registering as a passenger and actually entering the plane are two different things.
It is entirely possible (even if very implausible) that for some reason Prigozhin did not board the plane - and went along with the official narrative when it crashed.
Cause of the crash.
Determining the ultimate cause of the crash is important - for it can reveal complicity of certain individuals/institutions (while ruling out others).
For example, early on, there were rumors that the plane was shot out of the sky altogether - that apparently, Russia’s air defense systems straight up shot down the jet.
(side note: that would have been quite an escalation from polonium (against Alexander Litvinenko) and Novichok (administered to Sergei Skripal, Alexei Navalny) - previous tools of assassination used on individuals that Putin had labeled as traitors..)
But within a day of such statements, Western intel agencies cast a large shadow of doubt on this version of events - the US Defense Ministry specifically highlighted that there was no indication of a surface-to-air missile being launched at the time of the accident.
Now, one could certainly inquire: how is it possible for US intel agencies to track all missile launches in real-time?
It is a legitimate question with likely a straightforward answer: most probably, American defense/intel officials are relying on Space-Based Infrared System satellites or SBIRS for short.
These infrared satellites are designed to spot missile launches based on the released heat signature.
The SBIRS detect infrared lights created during the launch of missiles - the sensors empower the operators with an ability to see every missile launch taking place all around the world.
They are quite effective, and were used to prove that Iranian air defense SAMs shot down Ukrainian airlines jet in Jan 2020 (somehow, through sheer incompetence, mistaking it for a military target)
So then, we shall presume that this is correct, and that the plane wasn’t indeed brought down by a missile.
What else could have caused this?
We know that there must have been a 1) severe structural defect, or damage that 2) had consequently rendered the plane uncontrollable.
And we know this because the jet took a massive nosedive and lost a significant amount of altitude in a very short period of time, and because the plane’s tail separated from the body in flight - landing over a mile from the main crash site.
So the plane broke up in flight - what could have caused such a break up in a modern jet?
An in-flight explosion is the most likely possibility - but proving this would require a careful examination of the evidence - explosions caused from collisions (and jet fuel) and fire leave significantly different marks than explosive devices.
In-flight bombs leave a particular residue - we could know this even almost half a century ago - when an Indian airlines Boeing 747 jet crashed into the Atlantic Ocean - the residue from pieces of the airplane’s main body revealed the presence of a bomb.
Forensic science has only improved since then - it is almost inconceivable that the Russian investigators could not prove the presence of a bomb if they wanted to.
And there is serious doubt that they do want to find out answers - ‘‘investigators’’ were even filmed dragging pieces of debris and throwing them around - indifferent to the potential damage that this would have caused to an essential body of evidence.
In other words, Russian investigators do not have incentives to not tamper with the crucial evidence.
Presence of a bomb is the most likely explanation - but it certainly is not the only one.
It is also possible that a maintenance crew ‘‘loosened a few bolts’’ that created a permissive environment for the jet to break apart from an aerodynamic strain in flight - especially if there was some sudden turbulence.
Throughout modern history, modern jets have crashed because of one misplaced bolt/wrong or defective part that placed the integrity of the larger component under unsustainable strain.
(side note: Partnair flight - fatal crash of another private/chartered flight of a similarly sized plane, is a good example of this - only on this occasion the loose bolts could have been a deliberate sabotage)
Indeed, there have been far more devastating major crashes due to the existence of structural damage (often caused by bad maintenance) than from, say, an engine failure (a rare cause of actual incidents - erroneously, still the most popular with the public).
But this is still an unlikely explanation - since: a) such planning does not guarantee results (what if Prigozhin randomly bought a new jet? Or was stuck in one place for a long time), and it is a plan that leaves too many witnesses and parties involved - in other words, it requires a lot of manpower to pull off..
And frankly, this is also a scenario giving too much credit to the abilities of the FSB (surely, the most likely agency that would have pulled this off) - an organization that failed to administer a poison to Navalny, and one which failed to foresee Prigozhin’s attempted coup in time to stop him in his tracks..
Alternative culprits.
And this is why finding out the cause of the crash is important - it narrows down the list of potential culprits.
Exactly what tools were utilized matters in indicating who was behind the crash (at least as a proximate cause - since Putin is the ultimate cause: whether it is direct or indirect).
In other words, tools imply certain capabilities, and capabilities lead to certain groups of people/institutions.
For example, early-on, telegram channels (both pro and Anti-wagner) were rife with speculations that this was the doing of senior air force commanders - avenging the death of their fallen comrades (remember that on his march to Rostov, Prigozhin shot down 7 Russian military aircrafts - killing a number of Russian pilots.).
The fact that the crash took place only a day after the head of Russia’s Aerospace Forces and a Prigozhin ally (who, as we previously discussed, was likely to be at the very least tacitly complicit in the attempted coup), and really, probably Russia’s most competent commander (author of the layered, and well-mined defensive lines that are causing so much trouble to advancing Ukrainian troops) General Surovikin was sacked from his post, added only further fuel on the speculations - that as soon as he was removed, lower ranked commanders killed his ally via surface-to-air missiles.
Naturally, this is a very implausible scenario - for a start, because there is no evidence of actual missile launches.
But also, and even if the plane was brought down by the missiles, why would these commanders have any reason to fear Surovikin?
It was a well-known public fact that Surovikin was missing for a very long time, was being questioned by the FSB, and was clearly not in Putin’s favor.
In other words, if these plotters had anyone at all to fear, that person would have been Putin himself - and so, either his tacit approval would have been sufficient to proceed with the revenge plan, or they would have been following Putin’s orders (or in practice his messenger’s) commands directly.
In other words, Surovikin being at the helm of the Aerospace Forces was all too relevant.
But, a more intriguing question is this: if there was after all a missile strike, does that mean that the usual route of an FSB operation was avoided? If so, does that mean that Putin is not taking chances on the agency anymore?
And if that is the case - is that because he does not trust the FSB to be loyal and avoid leaks? Or he is not all too sure about their competence in carrying this out?
In addition, one should also not rule out other players and institutions that could have carried out this assassination.
The following two units (aside from the FSB) are the most likely executioners:
1) Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoygu’s private military company - “Patriot” (even so, this is still unlikely - there is not much evidence that the militia is comprised of outright thugs that could have been trusted to carry this out both professionally and without any leaks);
2) Putin’s own loyal consigliere, Viktor Zolotov - who was rewarded for his loyalty in standing up to Prigozhin and rallying his troops in defense of Moscow at the time of the coup.
For his loyalty, his National Guard unit (which was hitherto nothing more than a glorified riot police) was equipped with tanks and armored vehicles - perhaps Zolotov pulled a few strings to please his boss, and solidify his position even further?
Possible.
What about others?
The two most-often cited alternative executioners are very unlikely to have been entrusted with this mission.
The first is the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.
First off, it is very unlikely that Putin would consider him close enough to trust him to carry this out without leaks.
Secondly, this a very high-caliber mission quite clearly over Kadyrov’s empty head - he and his warriors from “Akhmat’’, most likely lack skill and refinement to pull-off a plane crash and make it look like an accident.
These bumbling idiots would have messed things up big time.
Finally, Kadyrov would probably turn it down - this is too confrontational for him. What if this gets out and other Wagner warriors come out to get him?
Again, remember that the Chechen “Akhmat” warriors are largely TikTok warriors that shy away from real combat at all costs.
They have avoided bloody fights in Ukraine, and even during the attempted coup, their soldiers shut down an empty highway (ostensibly guarding it) far away from action - they then naturally published a TikTok video of this heroic deed.
But this is a mission that cannot be refused - the person receiving the order must carry it out and be complicit (carrying an incentive to maintain the secrecy).
And knowing that Kadyrov was simply not a right fit for this, it is very doubtful that Putin would have ordered this.
A lot of people are also raising the prospect of the Russian military intelligence agency, the GRU being behind this hit.
Although highly proficient and capable (much more than the FSB), there is a big problem with this theory - a lot of GRU generals and commanders were highly sympathetic to Wagner.
In addition, a lot of Wagner fighters were former agents of the GRU - they have a lot of friends in that agency.
(side note: in fact, the name of the agency comes from the callsign of Wagner’s original founder (in 2015), and a former GRU agent - Dmitriy Utkin. “Wagner” was Utkin’s callsign during his time at the GRU. Dmitriy Utkin was also present on the plane - sharing Prigozhin’s fate)
And many of these were likely to be at mid-level - the type of individuals senior enough to actually execute this mission (but not too old/senior enough to sit in the corner room offices of the agency).
In other words, there would have been a major possibility of a warning/leak.
Who knows what would happen then?
Would Prigozhin try again?
And knowing that he is a dead man walking, what would stop him from another attempt?
Consequently, and even though in all other respects (from professionalism to capabilities) the GRU could have been a good fit, Putin could not have possibly risked the leaks/deliberate warning to Wagner emanating from this agency.
Finally, there is also a possibility that another unknown enemy of Prigozhin wanted to take him out while there was still a permissible political environment for this - in other words, striking while the iron was still hot.
But regardless of who exactly did this, it is inconceivable that it was not either by a direct or at the very least tacit approval of Putin.
Prigozhin was simply a man of too high of a profile to have been killed without Putin’s go ahead.
Ultimately therefore, and assuming that this was indeed an assassination (a very reasonable working assumption - in fact, the opposite presumption would be unreasonable), given the overall context, at the end of the day, it was Putin who was the real executioner here.
(side note: there is also a possibility that Ukraine’s GUR (military intel agency) could have been behind this. They are indeed very capable, and sowing internal discord could have been worth it. It would also guarantee that Prigozhin would never return to the battlefields of Ukraine.. On the other hand, surely letting Prigozhin live and remain a threat to Putin had more upsides - especially now that Prigozhin was not in Ukraine and was re-focusing on Africa. In addition, at this point, this is nothing more than a pure speculation - there isn’t even an indirect/circumstantial evidence of Ukrainian complicity - so the presumption that Putin was behind this hit still stands)
Domestic political implications.
(we will discuss the impact of the Wagner leader’s death on Russia’s foreign policy and campaigns in the upcoming cables)
The following analysis will presume that this was indeed an assassination - but also, and regardless if it really was, the Russian (as well as global) public and elite, and virtually everyone believes that it was.
So given this perception, the analysis will stand regardless if there is a minuscule chance that it really was just an accident…
When it comes to the Russian elite (both the security apparatus/siloviki and the financial/business elite) the lessons are clear:
1) “Betray Putin and you die” maxim still stands.
2) If you are going for the King, you have to go all the way.
3) De-escalatory measures and “peaceful resolutions” are bunch of nonsense: it may take some time before a trigger is pulled (for example, in one of the previous cables, we discussed how Prigozhin was being discredited and accused of corruption by the Kremlin propaganda machine for many weeks after the coup - the plan was to strip him of a status as a brave warrior and voice of the people - reducing his potential future status as a martyr - before getting rid of him definitively) but at some point, the trigger will indeed be pulled..
The final point matters a lot: since the incentive for any future coup attempter will now always be to go all the way - Putin’s promises and commitments to a deal (ostensibly, to avert “further bloodshed”) cannot be trusted.
This has further implications to the would-be followers of those undertaking future attempts to remove Putin: they will need to be absolutely certain that their leader can pull this off - because there is no peaceful way out: there is no plan B that lets you live freely - at least not for more than 2 months..
Consequently, and after months of embarrassment and questions around his grip on power, Putin has succeeded in making the next coup very unlikely.
There are also lessons for the Russian public - that Putin is not as weak as first thought, and that he is not in fact losing his grip on power.
(side note: that this revenge was conducted so callously - with collateral damage/pilots crew members killed, and surely, with a major risk to lives on the ground, adds to Putin’s reputation for ruthlessness)
Indeed, shortly after the coup, we discussed how it was too soon to jump onto the Western media bandwagon that Putin would be irreversibly weakened from this humiliation.
We highlighted opposite scenarios after failed coups - the Turkish President Erdogan’s increased grip on power after surviving the humiliation of an F-16 fighter jet targeting his plane, was a good example of possible recoveries..
None of this is to say that Putin’s grip on power is now as secure (or more so) as prior to the attempted coup - it is still too early to advance such a proposition.
But he is clearly no longer as vulnerable as in the days immediately following the Prigozhin attempt.
But even that may change soon - for there is another stakeholder group that we must consider: the far-right and Wagner loyalists.
Putin is already targeting the earnest proponents of the war - the far-right ultranationalists that attack the Kremlin for not doing enough to prosecute the war with sufficient effectiveness.
The arrest and detention of Igor Girkin (also known as Strelkov - the OG, responsible for the first campaign in Donbas - dragging Russia into the campaign in Eastern Ukraine. Most intel has since confirmed that Putin was originally content to leave things at Crimea, but was later pulled into Eastern Ukraine - and his appetites kept growing from that point onwards) was a prime example of this.
But what about angry supporters and former soldiers/commanders of Wagner?
Pro-Wagner telegram channels are full of statements to the effect that Putin should not have been trusted to uphold the (“peaceful resolution”) deal and that Prigozhin should have gone all the way.
There are also a number of threats of revenge.
Putin’s solution?
Well, merely two days after Prigozhin’s death, Putin signed a new decree on Friday - ordering Wagner soldiers (applicable to those still serving in Ukraine) to swear allegiance to the Russian state.
Now, if there is one thing we know about Wagner soldiers, it is their history of adhering to formal contracts and to the laws of the Russian state - the march on Rostov and Moscow, downing 7 Russian aircrafts, killing Russian pilots, and capturing senior Russian generals.. Well, all that was surely just an anomaly - after all, everyone has a bad day at the office right?
All this is to say that how this murder will play out with Wagner soldiers and commanders still out there, is anyone’s guess.
As one telegram message (published by an account named “Fatherland” - and with nearly 1m views on the message itself) said: “Probably whoever organized it thinks he’s won, but he hasn’t … if it’s a knife in the back, the motherland will survive but your fate as Judas is unenviable”.