Good stuff. Yes, get Sweden and Finland in ASAP. As to Ukraine in the EU, yes. My question, how will Turkey react? Their EU application has been stalled for decades. At this point, despite their democratic shortcomings, I’d admit Turkey as well. It would promote goodwill and annoy Russia.
I agree with that assessment Frank. Turkey is also economically/industrially well-developed. One could even argue that in certain high-tech industries they surpass Italy/Spain.
But there are two practical roadblocks:
1) Greece/Cyprus aren't approving Turkish membership anytime soon - at least not as long as Erdogan is in power. Perhaps at some point there could be some genuine rapprochement.
2) If Turkey was to be admitted, EU would have a direct border with Syria, Iraq and Iran. Given the volatility of the region/drug smuggling - ease of refugee inflows/potential terrorist inflows, no one within the EU will be a fan of this idea. Not surprising that even in early 2000s (pre-refugee crisis) only the UK/Spain were strongly in favor of Turkish memberships: both wanted to create a counterbalance to rising continental powers (France and Germany), and neither would be too affected with migration issue (since the issue would have to be solved well before it ever reached them).
It is unclear to me - I don't see a consensus forming anytime soon. Arguments for Bosnia's entry are not compelling enough (at this point in time). Risk/reward ratio is too skewed. Milorad Dodik could lead a secessionist movement in Republika Srpska part of Bosnia. Russia could then get involved via Serbia - supply weapons and GRU agents to cause chaos. Renewed war, refugee crisis, and certainly plenty of war crimes. It seems more prudent to freeze the question of their membership until after Putin is removed from power - by then, hopefully a new generation of Serbs are less nationalistic and do not have a nationalist/interventionist leader to rely on.
Indeed. Also, Orban's victory is a blow for NATO's Ukraine policies, as would be a LePen victory in France. Hopefully Macron will pull it out. Johnson's appearance in Kiev was great, as was the EU leader's. I would say Biden should go but that might be a provocation too far. Also dangerous. Maybe send Harris.
Good stuff. Yes, get Sweden and Finland in ASAP. As to Ukraine in the EU, yes. My question, how will Turkey react? Their EU application has been stalled for decades. At this point, despite their democratic shortcomings, I’d admit Turkey as well. It would promote goodwill and annoy Russia.
I agree with that assessment Frank. Turkey is also economically/industrially well-developed. One could even argue that in certain high-tech industries they surpass Italy/Spain.
But there are two practical roadblocks:
1) Greece/Cyprus aren't approving Turkish membership anytime soon - at least not as long as Erdogan is in power. Perhaps at some point there could be some genuine rapprochement.
2) If Turkey was to be admitted, EU would have a direct border with Syria, Iraq and Iran. Given the volatility of the region/drug smuggling - ease of refugee inflows/potential terrorist inflows, no one within the EU will be a fan of this idea. Not surprising that even in early 2000s (pre-refugee crisis) only the UK/Spain were strongly in favor of Turkish memberships: both wanted to create a counterbalance to rising continental powers (France and Germany), and neither would be too affected with migration issue (since the issue would have to be solved well before it ever reached them).
These are good points. Thanks.
Also I read that Bosnia's application to NATO is in process. Do you know what the delay is or if they will get in?
It is unclear to me - I don't see a consensus forming anytime soon. Arguments for Bosnia's entry are not compelling enough (at this point in time). Risk/reward ratio is too skewed. Milorad Dodik could lead a secessionist movement in Republika Srpska part of Bosnia. Russia could then get involved via Serbia - supply weapons and GRU agents to cause chaos. Renewed war, refugee crisis, and certainly plenty of war crimes. It seems more prudent to freeze the question of their membership until after Putin is removed from power - by then, hopefully a new generation of Serbs are less nationalistic and do not have a nationalist/interventionist leader to rely on.
Indeed. Also, Orban's victory is a blow for NATO's Ukraine policies, as would be a LePen victory in France. Hopefully Macron will pull it out. Johnson's appearance in Kiev was great, as was the EU leader's. I would say Biden should go but that might be a provocation too far. Also dangerous. Maybe send Harris.