The Bismarck Cables

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How Mossad "Recruited" Ahmadinejad and Lost Him: The Asset, the Extraction, and the Double-Agent Question
Amid the recent escalation in conflict with Iran, one story received less than the fair amount of spotlight that it deserved.
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The Firing That Weakened Zelensky at His Strongest: Ukraine’s Most Needless Wartime Crisis
On Wednesday night, Zelensky fired his defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, after six months in the job, and set off the biggest wave of public dissent…
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Second-Order Consequences Of America’s Great AI Giveaway
The previous cable argued that uncapping AI chips for the United Arab Emirates and its national champion G42 will slow the American AI buildout, open a…
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The UAE Deal That Could Reshape the AI Race
On July 10, the Department of Commerce reclassified the United Arab Emirates to Country Group A:5, the export-control tier reserved for the closest…
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The MOU Collapses: Iran Is Testing How Far It Can Push America
The 60-day ceasefire is effectively dead.
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Lindsay Graham: A highly consequential Senator and a skilled courtier.
On Friday afternoon, July 10, Lindsey Graham stood in front of journalists in Kyiv and announced that, roughly 30 minutes earlier, he had reached an…
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Why the War Will Not End Soon, Part 3: Trump And The U.S. Interests Involved
Part 1 covered the belligerents, Zelensky and Putin, and why each prefers continued fighting to the deal on offer.
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Why the Ukraine War Will Not End Soon, Part 2: Europe’s Narrow Window Of Opportunity
Part 1 covered the two belligerents and why each, for opposite reasons, prefers continued fighting (in the near-term) to the deal currently on offer.
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Why the Ukraine War Will Not End Soon, Part 1: Incentives Facing Zelensky and Putin
At the end of the previous cable on the prospects of near-term resolution to Russia - Ukraine war, these cables promised to explain why genuine…
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Putin’s Reckless Poland Gambit: Why Russia May Be Preparing to Strike Poland
On July 3, The Telegraph reported that US intelligence has warned Poland that Russia is planning an armed provocation on Polish territory, possibly in…
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Russia’s Fuel Shortage and Putin’s Signaling
The Sane Tsar
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June 2026

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